In 2018, sales of new energy vehicles increased by 61.7% year-on-year, while new energy buses “contradicted the trend” and decreased by 2.3%

According to the latest data released by the China Automobile Association, in 2018, the production and sales of passenger vehicles were 23.529 million and 23.71 million, down 5.2% and 4.1% respectively from the same period of the previous year. Total car sales for the year reported 28.08 million, the first annual decline since 1990. In this context, the sales of new energy vehicles in 2018 increased by 61.7% year-on-year, but the passenger car market, which is a segment of new energy commercial vehicles, ushered in a “contrarian” decline.

  

In 2018, sales of new energy vehicles increased by 61.7% year-on-year, while new energy buses “contradicted the trend” and decreased by 2.3%

A few days ago, data from the China Bus Statistical Information Network showed that under the expectation of a sharp decline in subsidies in 2019, in December 2018, 22,240 new energy buses above 6 meters were sold in my country, an increase of 87% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 26%. In 2018, a total of 91,174 new energy buses over 6 meters were sold, a year-on-year decrease of 2.3%. In previous reports, Tramway has repeatedly mentioned the view of finding “incremental” in the “stock” of the new energy bus market. The 2.3% year-on-year decline in sales in 2018 was higher than expected. After all, the market has experienced two market outbreaks. , that is, the policy switching period in May and December.

  

In 2018, sales of new energy vehicles increased by 61.7% year-on-year, while new energy buses “contradicted the trend” and decreased by 2.3%

From the perspective of the market structure, the ranking of the new energy bus market in 2018 was only fine-tuned, and the overall structure remained unchanged. With a sales volume of 24,600 units, Yutong Bus accounted for 27% of the market share, a year-on-year decrease of no more than 1%; the same is true for BYD, which has steadily won large orders from Guangzhou, and its market share has increased slightly to 13.92%; Unexpectedly, Yinlong New Energy, which was always negative last year, “bucked the trend” and became one of the top 3 companies in sales; it is worth mentioning that the “Golden Dragon Series” represented by Xiamen Golden Dragon, Xiamen Golden Travel, and Suzhou Golden Dragon performed well. Eyes, the overall sales volume is on par with or even surpasses BYD; Zhongtong Bus, Shanghai Shenlong and other manufacturers all have sales declines of about 15%.

However, the actual situation is far more “shocking” than the tabular data. Last month, Tramway Exchange reported on the operation methods of Yutong Bus and King Long according to the announcement of listed companies in order to alleviate the pressure on cash flow. Among them, Yutong Bus sacrificed a profit of 57 million yuan to achieve accounts receivable factoring business of 2.022 billion yuan, and King Long Auto Asset Securitization solved the problem of account recovery. The fact behind it is that the larger the volume, the higher the subsidy funds paid by manufacturers.

 

In addition, according to the statistics of the liquidation results officially announced by the four ministries and commissions, as of September 2018, the four ministries and commissions have completed a total of 5 times in 2016 and 2 times in 2017. .3 billion. At present, most of the subsidies for sales of new energy vehicles in 2017 and all of them in 2018 have not yet been liquidated. Since 2016, among the new energy bus companies, Yutong Bus has successfully liquidated 28,000 vehicles and received a national subsidy of 9.86 billion yuan; Zhongtong Bus has liquidated 12,000 vehicles, with a liquidation subsidy of 4.32 billion yuan; well below this level.

Judging from the 2019 new subsidy policy that was widely rumored in the industry last week, the words such as the decline of more than 50%, the reduction of the battery subsidy coefficient, and the no longer liquidation of vehicles that do not meet the standard indicate the overall trend of the policy. Setting a limit on the number of liquidations means that the subsidy will not be No matter how “sustainable” it is, it may even face an “unfinished” ending.

Author: Yoyokuo