Tesla’s market value has exceeded one trillion dollars, Musk once again surpassed Bezos to become the world’s richest man, and Musk’s net worth has reached a record $288.9 billion in human history.
Many people say that Ma Huateng is a big loser, because he spent more than 1.7 billion US dollars to take a 5% stake in Tesla in 2017, but he cashed out long ago, about 1 times the profit. If Ma Huateng didn’t cash out, how much money could he make now? It is more than 50 billion US dollars. Ma Huateng made a mistake that Li Zekai made on him back then.
So why was Ma Huateng eager to cash out Tesla? This is a matter of investment logic. Many people may not know that Goldman Sachs was the first to invest in Alibaba, but Goldman Sachs later emptied its shares in Alibaba. If Goldman Sachs hadn’t emptied Alibaba’s shares, Goldman Sachs would have made two or three hundred billion dollars today.
What’s interesting is that SoftBank, which succeeded in Ali, is now heavily in debt, and Goldman Sachs, which failed in Ali, is still very successful today. This is their company’s different investment logic. In order to bet on an Ali, Sun Zhengyi actually invested in hundreds of companies like Ali.
Goldman Sachs has its own investment logic to analyze whether a company is overvalued. In fact, investing is a simple matter of looking for companies that are undervalued by the market, and then selling them when the market overvalues them.
So here comes the question, is Tesla overvalued, and by how much? In fact, anyone with a little common sense in investing knows that Tesla is overvalued, and seriously overvalued. However, Wang Jianlin also said that investing is like drinking beer. If there is no foam, it will not taste good.
Most companies in the market are either overvalued or undervalued, which is reasonable. Tesla’s market value exceeded $1 trillion, becoming the eighth company in U.S. history to exceed $1 trillion in market value. However, Tesla has been losing money until the third quarter of this year. Today, the market value of Tesla is almost equal to the sum of Toyota, Volkswagen, BMW, Mercedes-Benz, BYD, General Motors and other car companies. Today, one Tesla is equal to four Toyotas.
People’s expectation for Tesla is to hope that it can become the king of the future market. Then make an assumption that Tesla has really become the king of the future market. How much can it be worth? To judge whether a company is successful or not, net profit must be the most critical.
Before Tesla, the car company with the highest market value was Toyota, with a market value of about more than 260 billion US dollars, an annual profit of about 20 billion US dollars, and a price-earnings ratio of about 13 times. The car is different from the Internet. No matter how strong Tesla is, it is impossible for the winner to take all. It is impossible for everyone in the world to only drive Tesla. Therefore, Tesla’s future market share is the same as that of Toyota and Volkswagen. Almost, this is already a good result.
No matter how good the prospect of electric vehicles is, they will only replace the current fuel vehicles, and it is impossible to create a new market. In other words, Tesla’s best future development is Toyota, and it is twice as bold as Toyota. If Tesla had achieved it, it would have been worth $400 to $500 billion at the time.
The capital market is to use future profits to support today’s profits. Toyota has reached that future of Tesla, and it is only worth more than 260 billion US dollars. Why is Tesla worth 1 trillion US dollars? From this perspective, Tesla is definitely overvalued, and vastly overvalued.
Tesla is overvalued, so it is right for Ma Huateng to sell Tesla. Investing is not to make money beyond your recognition. Even if this happens, you should not feel pity. If you have no bottom line and no rules, you bet once, you will continue to bet next time, but luck will not be on your side again and again.
Tencent’s investment empire is already very large, with total assets exceeding 250 billion US dollars. To manage such a huge investment empire, if it does not have its own principles, it will easily be doomed. Therefore, it is a correct performance to say that Ma Huateng gave up Tesla.
Sun Zhengyi bet on Alibaba, but his other investments other than Alibaba are actually a mess, because he has been looking for the next Alibaba for so many years, and everyone knows that such an opportunity is hard to come by. . Sun Zhengyi has a profit of tens of thousands of times, and he wants a second time.
However, Ma Huateng did not want to be the second Sun Zhengyi. In fact, after Ma Huateng sold Tesla, he switched to other companies, and also obtained a good return. When Ma Huateng sold Tesla, Tesla’s market value should have been around $100 billion. In fact, this estimate is relatively reasonable. In fact, from the fact that Ma Huateng sold Tesla, you can feel Ma Huateng’s cleverness. Ma Huateng is definitely greatly underestimated.